TY - JOUR
AU - J. A. Bellon
AU - de Dios Luna
AU - M. King
AU - B. Moreno-Kustner
AU - I. Nazareth
AU - C. Monton-Franco
AU - M. J. Gildegomez-Barragan
AU - M. Sanchez-Celaya
AU - M. A. Diaz-Barreiros
AU - C. Vicens
AU - J. A. Cervilla
AU - I. Svab
AU - H. I. Maaroos
AU - M. Xavier
AU - M. I. Geerlings
AU - S. Saldivia
AU - B. Gutierrez
AU - E. Motrico
AU - M. T. Martinez-Canavate
AU - B. Olivan-Blazquez
AU - M. S. Sanchez-Artiaga
AU - S. March
AU - Del Mar Munoz-Garcia
AU - A. Vazquez-Medrano
AU - P. Moreno-Peral
AU - F. Torres-Gonzalez
A1 - 
AB - BACKGROUND: The different incidence rates of, and risk factors for, depression in different countries argue for the need to have a specific risk algorithm for each country or a supranational risk algorithm. We aimed to develop and validate a predictD-Spain risk algorithm (PSRA) for the onset of major depression and to compare the performance of the PSRA with the predictD-Europe risk algorithm (PERA) in Spanish primary care.MethodA prospective cohort study with evaluations at baseline, 6 and 12 months. We measured 39 known risk factors and used multi-level logistic regression and inverse probability weighting to build the PSRA. In Spain (4574), Chile (2133) and another five European countries (5184), 11 891 non-depressed adult primary care attendees formed our at-risk population. The main outcome was DSM-IV major depression (CIDI). RESULTS: Six variables were patient characteristics or past events (sex, age, sexxage interaction, education, physical child abuse, and lifetime depression) and six were current status [Short Form 12 (SF-12) physical score, SF-12 mental score, dissatisfaction with unpaid work, number of serious problems in very close persons, dissatisfaction with living together at home, and taking medication for stress, anxiety or depression]. The C-index of the PSRA was 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79-0.84]. The Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI) was 0.0558 [standard error (s.e.)=0.0071, Zexp=7.88, p<0.0001] mainly due to the increase in sensitivity. Both the IDI and calibration plots showed that the PSRA functioned better than the PERA in Spain. CONCLUSIONS: The PSRA included new variables and afforded an improved performance over the PERA for predicting the onset of major depression in Spain. However, the PERA is still the best option in other European countries.
BT - Psychological medicine
C5 - General Literature
DO - 10.1017/S0033291711000468
JF - Psychological medicine
N2 - BACKGROUND: The different incidence rates of, and risk factors for, depression in different countries argue for the need to have a specific risk algorithm for each country or a supranational risk algorithm. We aimed to develop and validate a predictD-Spain risk algorithm (PSRA) for the onset of major depression and to compare the performance of the PSRA with the predictD-Europe risk algorithm (PERA) in Spanish primary care.MethodA prospective cohort study with evaluations at baseline, 6 and 12 months. We measured 39 known risk factors and used multi-level logistic regression and inverse probability weighting to build the PSRA. In Spain (4574), Chile (2133) and another five European countries (5184), 11 891 non-depressed adult primary care attendees formed our at-risk population. The main outcome was DSM-IV major depression (CIDI). RESULTS: Six variables were patient characteristics or past events (sex, age, sexxage interaction, education, physical child abuse, and lifetime depression) and six were current status [Short Form 12 (SF-12) physical score, SF-12 mental score, dissatisfaction with unpaid work, number of serious problems in very close persons, dissatisfaction with living together at home, and taking medication for stress, anxiety or depression]. The C-index of the PSRA was 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79-0.84]. The Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI) was 0.0558 [standard error (s.e.)=0.0071, Zexp=7.88, p<0.0001] mainly due to the increase in sensitivity. Both the IDI and calibration plots showed that the PSRA functioned better than the PERA in Spain. CONCLUSIONS: The PSRA included new variables and afforded an improved performance over the PERA for predicting the onset of major depression in Spain. However, the PERA is still the best option in other European countries.
PY - 2011
SN - 1469-8978; 0033-2917
SP - 1
EP - 14
EP - 
T1 - Predicting the onset of major depression in primary care: international validation of a risk prediction algorithm from Spain
T2 - Psychological medicine
TI - Predicting the onset of major depression in primary care: international validation of a risk prediction algorithm from Spain
U1 - General Literature
U2 - 21466749
U3 - 10.1017/S0033291711000468
VO - 1469-8978; 0033-2917
Y1 - 2011
ER -